Wellington should again boss territory and the ball with their high press and 60%+ possession, while Macarthur sit in a mid-block and spring wide counters into the space behind Payne’s replacement. That structure keeps tempo high in both directions rather than one-way traffic. All four Phoenix league games finished with both teams scoring, and their recent numbers (1.5 scored, 1.5 conceded per match, zero clean sheets) scream open exchanges. Macarthur’s profile matches: 0.8 goals scored but 3.5 shots on target, 2.5 big chances created and 2.0 missed show an attack that still generates good looks, backed up by BTTS landing in four of their last five overall. Recent H2H trends and perfect conditions on a top-quality pitch reinforce a trading-game script instead of a cagey chess match.

Devils push pace and hunt O-zone time; Islanders sit in structure and pray for Sorokin magic. Edges: NJD’s elite PP vs NYI’s middling PK, perfect home form, Allen’s hotter hand, deeper 5v5 shot quality, Isles’ finishing due for a chill after the shutout pop. Special teams tilt + home ice seals it.